El Nino update 3-27-16 : Forecast Upgrade
After a brief hiatus from the El Niño enhanced mega-swells of the winter, the Pacific is coming alive as we enter spring in the Northern hemisphere and fall in the Southern hemisphere.
The first complex Southern Hemisphere swell system of the year is setting up in the Roaring 40s and 50s of the South Pacific right now. Southerly exposures from Mainland Mexico and Central America to Peru are in the crosshairs. This will not be the biggest swell of the season by any means, but definitely the biggest since last October. The swell should top out in the first couple days of April around 8-9 feet (12-18ft faces) in deepwater for top S. America exposures in the Galapagos and Northern Peru , and at about 6 feet (8-12ft faces) in deepwater for El Salvador, Nicaragua , Costa Rica (Witches Rock and Ollies Point Charters / Wavehouse ) and Mainland Mexico (Salina Cruz , Sinaloa ) pointbreaks and reefbreaks. There will be a really nice run-up and run-down for this swell lasting about a week or more as the bigger more powerful swell reinforces an agitated sea state from the already solid swell preceding it. This is a great time to be down in the tropics surfing in board shorts. We have openings at our premier locations in the region for these upcoming swells.
The North Pacific is not done. The 120hr model exhibits a massive and tightly wound low pressure system over the Western Central Pacific late this weekend and early next week that is going to send a buttery N swell into Pohnpei to bookend the month of March and kick off April. This is a great time to shoot over there for clean late season conditions at P-Pass with hardly a soul around. This deep NW swell direction and very long periods is also ideal for exposures from Punta de Mita, MEX to NW S. America including theGalapagos , Northern Peru and Ecuador . These S. America mainland and offshore locations will be particularly good on the resulting combo swells over the first 7-10 days of April.
Don’t forget about the South Pacific Islands as well. We’re entering the peak season for swell and optimal wind conditions for places like Samoa , Fiji ( Tavarua Island , Fiji / Yacht Stellar, Fiji ), and New Zealand.
Cheers, Wavehunters
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